Why Derrick Henry is the Steal of 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts
What you're about to read is straight out of BBFF's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. We do this for every single player, on every single team...
Betting odds as of 6/5/2024:
💰 7th best odds of winning Offensive Player of the Year (+1800)
💰 5th best odds of leading the league in rushing yards (+1200)
💰 Over/Under 999.5 rushing yards (+110 over, -130 under)
💰 Over/Under 10.5 rushing TDs (-105 over, -115 under)
Disclaimer: I am NOT a betting expert by any means. But Derrick Henry’s over/under of just 999.5 rushing yards is jaw-dropping to me. Henry has 1000 or more rushing yards in 5 of the last 6 seasons and would need just 225 carries at 4.4 yards per carry to reach 1,000 yards.
Gus Edwards—who is NOT Derrick Henry—had 810 rushing yards in this offense last year…
Make it make sense...
Fantasy Football:
Derrick Henry is entering his age 30 season and starting a new (final?) chapter of his career, signing a 2 year, $16 million contract with the Ravens—including $9 million guaranteed—after spending the first 8 years of his career with the Tennessee Titans.
After suffering through a 6-11 campaign with a Titans offense that finished 20th in rushing attempts last season, King Henry will join a Ravens offense that’s finished 12th or higher in rushing attempts in 13 of the 16 years that John Harbaugh has been coaching the Ravens, including finishing FIRST in rushing attempts, FIRST in rushing yards, and 4th in rushing TDs last season, their first with new Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken.
Averaging just 1.7 targets per game over his 119 game career, the one risk to Henry in the past as a fantasy football asset was being scripted out of games where the Titans fell behind early (because they didn’t use him in the passing game.
For example, last year’s Titans lost 6 different games by 2 or more scores, during which King Henry averaged just 12.7 touches for a sickening 7.2 PPR points per game. He reached the 10 PPR point mark just once in those 6 games.
But in the remaining 11 games—where the Titans either won or lost by less than 1 score—King Henry averaged 21.1 touches and 17.7 PPR points per game, scoring 15 or more PPR points in 9 of those 11 games.
Now we’re talking.
And now, Henry is going from a 6-11 Titans team to a 13-4 Ravens team that’s won 62% of their games during John Harbaugh’s 16 year career as their Head Coach.
TLDR: Volume will not be a concern for King Derrick Henry.
Neither will scoring chances in an offense that’s finished top 10 in rushing TDs in 6 of the last 7 seasons, including top 4 in 4 of the last 6. Gus Edwards alone scored 13 TDs in Todd Monken’s offense last season, while Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell, Melvin Gordon, JK Dobbins, and Patrick Ricard added 9 more.
And as for efficiency? King Henry is going from a projected bottom 10 offensive line to a projected top 10 offensive line.
He has the 7th best odds of winning Offensive Player of the Year. There’s only 6 players ahead of him total, only 2 of which are running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson).
And yet this MF is being drafted as fantasy’s RB 10 around pick 33 overall.
CMC, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, Puka Nacua, Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Saquon Barkley make up the top 13 candidates to win Offensive Player of the Year.
Derrick Henry is the only one who's currently not drafted inside the first 2 rounds. Every single one of those other guys is usually drafted inside the top 21. Henry is drafted at 33...
Imagine getting a 1st round draft pick in the 3rd round of fantasy drafts…
Currently being drafted as RB 10 around pick 33 overall with legitimate top 5 upside, Derrick Henry looks like one of the premier steals in 2024 fantasy football leagues.
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