Looking back at Week 3
You ever have a week where you look at your lineups right after lock and just say "What the hell was I thinking?"
Well, that was me last week.
I again deviated from what was my historical norm and played three GPP lineups; however, I did so in a three entry max competition, which tends to play a bit chalkier than contests that let you enter 20 or more entries. In addition, my one standard cash lineup was deployed. I just...
Let's get to it. The best way to learn is to learn from your mistakes, and today, we're all going to learn from mine. After reading through all this, please follow me on Twitter at @DerekDevereaux and send me your best GIFs of people laughing at me.
My GPP lineups
I ran three different stacks:
A Cincy Stack (Burrow/AJ Green/Drew Sample) with a Miles Sanders runback on the opposite side. I targeted this believing (correctly) that Miles Sanders would be chalk, and that the Bengals side would theoretically be underowned, which was true with Burrow and AJ Green, but not with Sample. Burrow threw to Tyler Boyd. This lineup had five snowflakes, and two of them were in my stack. It was also my highest scoring lineup. It did not cash.
A Bears skinny stack (Trubisky/Robinson) with Calvin Ridley as a runback. Trubisky was benched, Diontae Johnson got concussed, the Jets D is horrible, my Joshua Kelley call died with the Chargers offense - at home as favorites! Half of my points in this lineup came from Robinson and Derrick Henry.
A Lions skinny stack (they won the game!) of Stafford/Marvin Jones with DeAndre Hopkins as a runback. I got so much wrong that we can just leave it there.
Results: Too much snow. No green.
My Cash lineup
(played in various double ups - ownership and cash line based on GIANT $5 Double Up as largest cash contest entered)
Before I show you how bad this lineup is, let me explain to you what my thinking was in my cash lineup prior to lock.
I was going to play Derrick Henry, in a killer spot against a bad Vikings defense.
I was going to play Kyler and Hopkins together.
I was NOT going to play Jonathan Taylor. He was going to be horrible chalk.
I was going to play Miles Sanders; I thought his odds of failing were too small to fade, so this was the chalk to eat just to get over the line.
I was going to play Allen Robinson, who I thought was in a smash spot.
So then what happened? I didn't play Henry, opting to play Taylor to play defensive against what I thought would be high ownership. Then, well, you'll see the rest.
QB: Kyler Murray ($6800 - 50.74% owned - 24.7 points)
RB: Miles Sanders ($6400 - 66.05% owned - 14.7 points)
RB: Devin Singletary ($4900 - 24.69% owned - 16.1 points)
RB - Flex: Jonathan Taylor ($7000 - 41.15% owned - 13.2 points, was literally benched for portions of the second half - the Colts won this game by 29 points)
WR: DeAndre Hopkins ($7900 - 41.09% owned - 26.7 points)
WR: KJ Hamler ($3000 - 12.7% owned - 5.8 points - Jeff Driskel is his QB)
WR: Diontae Johnson ($5400 - 34.19% owned - 0.9 points - 1 concussion)
TE: Hunter Henry ($4800 - 5.51% - 10 points)
DEF: Chargers ($3600 - 5.24% owned - 4 points)
Beyond the screw up I lead with on Taylor over Henry, there's other obvious clear errors here that I don't know what I was thinking in hindsight.
I decided to pay UP at Tight End and Defense...and prioritize a min price WR.
I didn't even play Allen Robinson, opting instead to play Diontae Johnson for the $800 savings...just so I could, I don't even know? Play the Chargers D?
The moment I knew my lineup might be in trouble, which was prior to the 3pm kickoffs, I should have immediately went into GPP mode and made pivot adjustments. Simply put: I had Jonathan Taylor in my lineup still, and I knew he was going to be chalk. I can't catch people by playing the same player they are playing. This, right here, is THE most crucial thing to understand about catching the field in daily fantasy sports. And I failed it. As soon as I lost Diontae Johnson, and Sanders did basically nothing, and Singletary was just okay, this is what I should have done:
Come off of Jonathan Taylor and play a piece from Cowboys/Jets, either Zeke or Carson. I would have likely opted for Carson and saved the $400.
Swap out Hunter Henry and play a cheap TE. Given the available options, it would've been Herndon at $3400 for a $1400 savings.
Drop the Chargers D and go cheap. Probably would've played the Jets for $1600 less.
Get rid of KJ Hamler - there's no upside here! - and play a wide receiver with the savings elsewhere. Funny enough, I would've had an extra $3400 to spend, and I probably would've played - you guessed it - Tyler Lockett at $6400.
Total points - without the pivots: 116.10
Total points - had I made the changes I likely would have: 138.8
Cash line: 135.8
Result: It wouldn't have been pretty, but it would've cashed. Instead, it did not. Learn my lesson that I still need to remember myself.
Players from last week's picks that didn't end up in my lineups
Russell Wilson ($7300, vs. DAL - 39.8 points): I did have a consideration for him in cash, but I believed him to be too chalky to consider in GPPs. Just didn't find a spot for him.
Justin Herbert ($5900, vs. CAR - 19.7 points): I ended up playing Joshua Kelley in GPP lineups, so I came off of Herbert as it would be negatively correlated with that. I would've stacked him if I played him, but there was no leverage there.
The cheap list of Mike Davis ($5100, at LAC - 23.1 points), Jerick McKinnon ($4900, at NYG - 16.7 points) and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4000, at NYG - 21.9 points). No space for them. Planted my flag on Singletary in cash and Kelley in GPPs. To my detriment.
Nick Chubb ($6900, vs. WAS): He just ended up in a bit of a dead spot salary wise for me - I had too much Henry and Hopkins scattered throughout, and where I had close to that I just went down to Sanders. Again, to my detriment.
Kareem Hunt ($6000, vs. DET - 8.9 points): A byproduct of having too much Kyler and Hopkins.
Juju Smith-Schuster ($6600, vs. HOU - 27 points): See Chubb, Nick.
Terry McLaurin ($5900, at CLE - 12.6 points): I did have areas I could have played Terry. I ended up playing Corey Davis ($5200, at MIN - 11.9 points) instead, thinking he would be lower owned, and it was in a lineup I did not have Derrick Henry in.
Darren Waller ($5700, at NE - 2.9 points): Couldn't find space to pay this high up.
Jordan Reed ($4000, at NYG - 4.3 points): He was being talked up again, so I figured ownership would be high, and the upside at this price wouldn't be nearly as good as the downside risk.
A beer to help me move forward to next week
Time to pour myself a Staghorn Octoberfest from New Glarus Brewing to get the spirits up and start prep work for Week 4. I don't lose two weeks in a row. Time to follow my own advice and not overthink things, especially in cash.
With three weeks in the books, it's time to prepare for week four! Be sure to follow along by subscribing below, joining us on Facebook, and enjoying some banter with us on Twitter: Derek Devereaux (author), Mikey Henninger (owner/writer/editor), JJ Gosh (writer).
Comments