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Writer's pictureMikey Henninger

Here's why I'm NOT drafting Kyren Williams in 2024 fantasy football drafts 👀


👆 Episode 27 of Inside the 20 discusses whether or not I'm SMASHING or PASSING on Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson in 2024 fantasy football drafts! 👆


Here's why I'm NOT drafting Kyren Williams in 2024 fantasy football drafts! 👀


What you're about to read is usually proprietary information that's reserved for subscribers of BBFF's Discord Server/online community. Below is an example of the type of insights you'll find when you join us for less than 1 beer per month at $4.99/month!


Kyren Williams went from relatively unknown to fantasy football monster in 2023, averaging an elite 20.4 PPR points and 21.1 touches per game.


While he technically finished as fantasy's RB 7 on the season, his 20.4 PPR points per game would have made him fantasy's RB 2 behind only Christian McCaffrey had he not missed 5 games.


So why would I NOT draft him in 2024?


Williams had 182 more touches than the Rams' next closest RB (Royce Freeman), who had 78 touches all year—55 of which came in games that Williams missed.


In other words, Williams had ZERO competition for backfield touches in 2023. That won't be the case in 2024.


Enter this year's 83rd overall pick in the NFL Draft, Blake Corum, who was widely considered to be among the top tier of running backs in this year's draft class.


Corum is a bit of an older RB prospect, as he'll already be 24 years old in November—just 3 months younger than Williams himself.


Typically, when NFL teams spend somewhat expensive draft capital—3rd round picks aren't cheap—on high(ish) profile RBs of advanced age and experience, they intend to get him on the field sooner than later.


Not surprising, considering Rams' GM Les Snead is on the record saying:


"We always felt like we needed to have as many quality runners as possible so we don’t just totally run down Kyren. And we have one or two, or even three guys that can contribute and keep everyone fresh."


And that's not all...


In 10 years as an NFL Offensive Coordinator or Head Coach, Sean McVay's RB 1 averages 243.2 touches per season...


But if we remove three monster seasons where Todd Gurley—a former "generational talent" and 10th overall NFL Draft pick; which Kyren Williams is not—dominated touches, McVay's RB 1's touches dip to just 217.1 per year.


That's just 12.8 touches per game in a 17 game season, by the way.


In fact, McVay's RB 1 has handled 255 or more touches (AKA 15 per game) in just 4 of 10 seasons, two of which belong to Gurley.


Of course, to be fair, Williams himself was one of those 4...


But again, he had zero competition for touches, allowing him to average over 21(!) touches per game when he was on the field.


That won't be the case in 2024, and here's where it gets particularly scary for Kyren Williams...


In 9 games that Williams handled 20 or more touches, he predictably dominated, scoring nearly 25 PPR points per game.


BUT...


In the 4 games where Williams handled fewer than 20 touches, he averaged just 10.4 PPR points per game, scoring fewer than 9 PPR points in 3 of those 4 games.


For context, 10.4 PPR points over a 17 game season would have made Williams fantasy's RB 30(!) on the season.


That's RB 3/flex level production.


Again, to be fair, we need to beware the tiny sample size, and note that in those 4 games, Williams never had more than 15 touches.


And to be clear, I'm NOT projecting Kyren Williams for just 12-15 touches or 10.4 PPR points per game.


He's going to get the ball more than that and he's going to score more than that.


But it's at least concerning that in the 4 games where he WASN'T force-fed 20+ touches—which doesn't happen much in the NFL anymore and won't happen for Williams in 2024—he did NOT produce.


And at such an expensive spot in 2024 fantasy football drafts, I'm usually PASSING on Williams more often than not and instead taking DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and several other names in that range.


Who do you want me to cover next? Let me know in the comments below!


On Drafters.com Kyren Williams is currently being drafted as fantasy's RB 7 around pick 31 overall (mid 3rd round).


Instead of mock drafts this year, try some best ball drafts to prepare for the 2024 season! Drafters.com offers fast and slow drafts (8 hours per pick) for as little as $1.10 per league! Enter promo code BBFF for a 100% match on your first deposit up to $100!


Enjoy the free money!


 

📌 Here are 3 ways to get the competitive edge in your fantasy leagues this season: 👇


1️⃣ Online Fantasy Football Community - a Discord Server of NFL fans and sharp fantasy football brains dedicated to helping each other conquer tough decisions and find success.


A perfect place to ask for a 2nd (or 69th) opinion on tough start/sit, trade, add/drop or life dilemma. Everyone in here is a paid subscriber, so you know it’s good people who take the game seriously and won’t steer you wrong!


This is also where I'm dropping fantasy football insights when I find them, as well as sending waiver wire alerts when news breaks!



2️⃣ 2024 Draft Guide - includes rankings for tiebreaker decisions, tiers for planning ahead, 2024 previews for every player (250 of them), stop lights that suggest the perfect time to draft a player, and an ADP tracker to show you which direction a player is trending in drafts.


It’s like you did 30+ hours of weekly research and 300+ real drafts to prepare!

 

3️⃣ In-Season Cheat Sheets - every week during the season, you’ll get cheat sheets to assist with waivers, start/sit decisions, streamer scenarios, DFS lineups, and more! This includes the weekly “Heat Map,” a lineup-setting resource that offers contextual analysis for every player in every game, every week. This is THE resource that started this entire business!




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