Every single week, 300+ fantasy football players are referencing a lineup setting resource called the Heat Map, which offers contextual analysis and expectations for every single player in every single game to help with difficult start sit decisions, DFS lineups and player prop bets.
The resource takes me 30+ hours per week to put together as I dig through the depths of NFL analytics, often leading me to interesting nuggets that I share in the weekly Heat Map itself.
By the way, if you want to give the Heat Map a try, I'm giving it away for just $1.99 this week!
With that in mind, here are 7 interesting nuggets I found this week:
🏈 Gardner Minshew is a good example of why it’s important to dig deep into numbers.
He is technically averaging 18.14 fantasy points per game after 4 starts this season, but that number is mega skewed by a week 7 eruption where Minshew completed 15 of 23 passes for 305 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT while adding 29 rushing yards and 2 TDs for 33.1 fantasy points.
He landed between 11-15 fantasy points in EACH of the other 3 starts.
🏈 The Tennessee Titans are the only defense in the NFL that has not yet allowed a single touchdown to a Tight End despite giving up 30 catches for 326 yards (the 46.57 yards per game are the 16th most allowed among all NFL defenses so far).
🏈 The Rams defense LOOKS like a good matchup on paper for QBs, as they’re technically allowing the 9th most fantasy points per game.
That said, it’s important to double click on the bigger picture and recognize they’re actually limiting opposing QBs to the 13th fewest passing yards and 4th fewest passing TDs per game.
Their ranking is so bad because they don’t intercept the ball (just 4 in 8 games) and are offering 25 QB rushing yards and 0.5 QB rushing TDs per game.
3 of the 4 QBs who’ve scored 15 or more fantasy points against the Rams needed 56+ rushing yards and/or a rushing TD to get there. Remove their rushing production and only 2 QBs in 8 games have scored 15 or more fantasy points against the Rams.
Remember that the next time LA faces a statue like...well...Matthew Stafford?
🏈 Mark Andrews scored 25 PPR points against the Browns in week 4.
Every other tight end the other 6 games against the Browns combined for 16.3 PPR points.
🏈 In week 2, Daniel Jones scored 30.74 fantasy points in desperation comeback mode against a bottom 7 Cardinals defense.
In the 4 other games he's played combined, Jones has 26.32 total fantasy points.
🏈 Cooper Kupp after 4 games: 38 targets, 21 catches, 316 yards, 1 TD, 58.6 PPR points, 2 games under 7 PPR points and 2 games over 19 PPR points.
Puka Nacua after the same 4 games: 37 targets, 22 catches, 294 yards, 1 TD, 57.4 PPR points, 2 games under 8 PPR points and 2 games over 20 PPR points.
🏈 I wrote the following before Thursday Night Football and I'm leaving it in here because it's still fun to think about...
(Prior to Thursday...) Diontae Johnson has now appeared in 17 games with Kenny Pickett at QB, catching 71 of 130 targets for 800 yards but not 1 single TD.
The 2019 3rd round pick from Toledo has not caught a touchdown pass since January 3rd, 2022 (AKA week 16 of the 2021 season) when he caught a 5 yard touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger.
As of this writing, Halloween, it has been 666 days since Diontae Johnson scored a touchdown.
That's spooky as hell.
It has been:
⚫ 1,234 offensive snaps
⚫ 183 targets
⚫ 109 catches
⚫ 1145 receiving yards
since Diontae Johnson scored a touchdown.
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