2024 Fantasy Football Rankings: What to Expect from the Green Bay Packers!
Key Losses:
RB Aaron Jones: 16.44 touches per game over the last 5 seasons
Key Additions:
RB Josh Jacobs: 20.58 touches per game over his 5 year career
RB MarShawn Lloyd: 3rd round rookie (88th overall pick)
Betting odds as of 5/14/2024:
💰 Over/Under 9.5 wins (-135 over, +105 under)
💰 -180 to make the playoffs
💰 2nd best odds (+175) of winning NFC North behind Detroit Lions (+150)
💰 Tied for 4th best odds of winning NFC (+800)
💰 Tied for 7th best odds of winning Super Bowl (+1600)
💰 Matt LaFleur has the 4th best odds of winning Coach of the Year (+1200)
Fantasy Football:
The Green Bay Packers are entering year 6 of the Matt LaFleur era, a half-decade that’s been mostly successful with a 68% winning percentage and 4 playoff appearances in 5 years, including last season, their first under new franchise QB Jordan Love.
From a fantasy football standpoint, Green Bay’s offense is generally one to target, having finished top 15 in scoring in all 5 seasons that MLF has been the team’s Head Coach.
In their first season under Jordan Love, Green Bay’s offense finished a friendly 12th in scoring and 11th in offensive yards, which is especially encouraging when you remember the pass-catching crew was filled with 1st and 2nd year players.
Most of last year’s offense is back in 2024, albeit with a major shakeup in the RB room after Packers let fan-favorite Aaron Jones sign with the division rival Minnesota Vikings after 7 loyal seasons in Green Bay.
That said, the Packers shouldn’t skip a beat considering Jones missed 6 games with injuries last season, and Green Bay brought in 2019 1st round pick Josh Jacobs to replace him—not to mention investing a 3rd round pick in rookie MarShawn Lloyd.
In other words, the 2024 Packers offense should once again be one worth targeting in 2024 fantasy football.
That said, there ARE some noteworthy concerns that should be addressed.
First and foremost for any RB, WR or TE in green and yellow, volume alone could be hard to come by in an offense that:
❌ is slow, finishing 31st in offensive drives and 21st in offensive plays executed last season
❌ has never finished higher than 15th in passing attempts in 5 years that MLF has been the Head Coach, even when playing with a Hall of Fame QB
❌ has a lot of mouths to feed in Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd and AJ Dillon.
That said, what the Packers lack in volume, they often make up for with efficiency:
✅ Despite finishing 31st in offensive drives and 21st in offensive plays executed, Green Bay finished 6th in yards per play and 9th in percentage of drives that ended in points (39.7%)
✅ Despite finishing a mediocre 15th in passing attempts, Green Bay finished 12th in passing yards and, more impressively, 3rd in passing, TDs including 3rd in pass TD percentage (the percentage of passing attempts that resulted in touchdowns)
✅ Despite never finishing higher than 15th in passing attempts during the MLF era, Green Bay’s finished 14th or better in passing TDs in every season, including campaigns where they finished 4th, 3rd, and 1st in 5 seasons.
Still, with 6 noteworthy names in the passing game and 3 noteworthy names in the running game, raw volume could be hard to come by for all involved.
It’s also worth noting that, while Green Bay did a terrific job getting into the red zone last year—they tied for 5th in trips to the red zone—they struggled to punch it in when they got there, finishing 9th in red zone TDs and 20th in red zone TD percentage (51.6%).
That said, the Packers were also without TE Luke Musgrave for 6 games, natural-born TD scorer Christian Watson for 8 games, and Aaron Jones for 6 games, a guy who previously scored a whopping 56 touchdowns over the last 74 games.
Not to once again mention the fact that last year’s pass catchers were all inexperienced 1st and 2nd year players, which can show up in crunch time when the field gets shorter in the red zone.
In other words, with healthy weapons that have added a year of experience to their resume, there’s room for growth in the red zone efficiency department (which is a good thing for fantasy football).
At the QB level, it’s wheels up for Jordan Love, entering his 2nd year as a starting QB with a healthy supporting cast and lots of weapons in Watson, Reed, Doubs, Wicks, Musgrave, Kraft, Jacobs, Lloyd and Dillon.
At the RB level, there are noted volume concerns with 3 capable running backs in a slow offense that’s never finished better than 12th in rushing attempts in a half decade under Matt LaFleur.
Likewise, at the WR and TE levels, there’s more volume concerns with 6 capable pass catchers—not even including running backs who accounted for 17% of the team’s target share last year—in a slow offense that’s never finished better than 15th in passing attempts in a half decade under Matt LaFleur.
SO...Are we drafting Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, MarShawn Lloyd, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, AJ Dillon, and/or Tucker Kraft at their respective costs in 2024 Fantasy Football?
Maybe. 😉
Those answers are inside BBFF's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, an unfair cheat sheet that BBFF subscribers are using to dominate their drafts and get ahead of their league-mates before the first football is even kicked in Week 1.
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