2024 Fantasy Football Rankings: What to Expect from the Miami Dolphins!
Key Losses:
N/A
Key Adds:
RB Jaylen Wright
WR Odell Beckham
TE Jonnu Smith
📈 Risers:
N/A
📉 Fallers:
N/A
Betting odds as of 5/23/2024:
💰 Over/Under 9.5 Wins (-125 over, -105 under)
💰 -170 odds of making the playoffs
💰 2nd best odds of winning the AFC East (+190)
💰 7th best odds of winning the AFC (+900)
💰 14th best odds of winning the Super Bowl (+3300)
Fantasy Football:
The Miami Dolphins are entering year 3 of the Mike McDaniel era.
An era that’s been successful to this point, winning 59% of their games and making the playoffs in both years under McDaniel after previously making the playoffs just twice in the last 20 years (2001).
McDaniel’s Dolphins have brought fireworks to the fantasy football field as well, finishing 11th & 2nd in scoring and 6th and 1st in offensive yards since McDaniel came to town.
Despite modest volume in the passing game—they’ve finished 13th and 20th in passing attempts in 2 years under McDaniel—they’ve been ELITE in both passing yardage—4th and 1st—and passing touchdowns—4th and 4th.
And after a brutal 2022 on the ground where they finished 31st in rushing attempts, 25th in rushing yards and 22nd in rushing touchdowns, McDaniel’s Dolphins turned it around completely in 2023, finishing 15th in rushing attempts, 6th in rushing yards, and 1st in rushing TDs.
Best of all, all of this team success showed up at the individual level as well, and it showed up in a big way:
🏈 Slowed by a buffet of concussions in 2022, Tua Tagovailoa only appeared in 13 games and technically finished as fantasy’s QB 15 on the year.
That said, leading the league in yards-per-attempt (8.9) and tying MVP Patrick Mahomes for the league lead in touchdown percentage (the amount of touchdowns thrown per pass attempt), Tagovailoa averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game in 2022, an average that would have made him fantasy’s QB 6 had he played all 17 games.
🏈 In 2023, Tagovailoa proved his health, playing an entire season and finishing as fantasy’s QB 11. He finished top 5 in completion percentage (69.3%) and touchdown passes (29) while leading the NFL in passing yards (4624).
🏈 In 2022, Raheem Mostert finished as fantasy’s RB 25 and Jeff Wilson finished as fantasy’s RB 30 despite neither one of finishing higher than 28th in the NFL in touches. Neither one of them averaged even just 14 touches per game.
🔥 In 2023, Mostert finished as fantasy’s RB 5, leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns (18) and tying Christian McCaffrey for the league lead in total touchdowns (21) despite finishing 25th in the NFL in overall touches (234)—CMC finished 1st with 339.
🏈 De’Von Achane finished as fantasy’s RB 24 in 2023 despite appearing in just 11 games. He finished 9th in the NFL in yards per touch (7.7) and averaged 17.3 PPR points per game, a rate that WOULD have made him fantasy’s RB 2 overall had he played all 17 games.
🔥 Tyreek Hill finished as fantasy’s WR 2 in 2022, finishing top 3 in the NFL in targets (170), catches (119), yards (1710) and yards per touch (13.8).
🔥 In 2023, Hill once again finished as fantasy’s WR 2, leading the NFL in receiving yards (1799), receiving touchdowns (13), and yards-per-touch (14.5).
🔥 Jaylen Waddle finished as fantasy’s WR 8 in 2022, finishing 7th in the NFL in receiving yards (1356) despite finishing 25th in targets (117) and 27th in catches (75).
He led the NFL in yards per target (11.6) and yards per catch (18.1), and had the 2nd longest reception in the NFL in 2022 (84 yards behind only Gabe Davis who had a 98 yard touchdown that year).
🏈 Waddle then finished as fantasy’s WR 34 in 2023. But his 14.2 PPR points per game would have made him fantasy’s WR 16 had he not missed 3 games with injury.
Consistent fantasy football production from Miami’s QB, RB 1, RB 2, WR 1 and WR 2 with Mike McDaniel calling the shots.
And heading into 2024 with a cast and environment that’s nearly identical to what we’ve seen in the last 2 seasons, there’s no reason to expect much change in 2024.
But we SHOULD anticipate at least a SOME change…
What Miami has NOT been able to offer during the Mike McDaniel era is a fantasy-friendly WR 3.
Trent Sherfield was fantasy’s WR 87 in 2022.
Cedrick Wilson was fantasy’s WR 89 in 2023.
That said, neither of those guys are in the same league as free agent signee Odell Beckham.
Of course, entering his age 32 season having failed to reach 600 yards or 6 TDs since 2019, OBJ is hardly a sure thing in his own right; he’s finished as fantasy’s WR 55 or worse in each of the last 4 seasons.
Still, if OBJ proves to have anything left in the tank, the former 1400 yard receiver could find himself inside the top 50 of fantasy WRs, and he’s just 1 injury away from playing full time snaps in an offense that’s finished 4th and 1st in passing yards and 4th and 4th in passing TDs over the last 2 seasons.
And then there’s the running backs…
(I already discussed this in great detail in episode 15, but…)
Mostert and Achane are back and ready to begin the 2024 campaign as co-stars in an electric Miami backfield. BUT…
Mostert is entering his age 32 season and the Dolphins likely don’t want him repeating last year’s career high 234 touches; he previously had exceeded 151 touches just 1 other time in his 9 year career.
And at 5’9,” 188 pounds, De’Von Achane almost predictably missed 6 games with injury.
Neither guy projects as a heavy volume type of running back, and after the Dolphins gave their RBs 387 touches in 2022 and 478 touches in 2023, there’s plenty of room for a THIRD running back to join the conversation.
Jaylen Wright has entered the chat.
Basically De’Von Achane with 20 extra pounds, Jaylen Wright ALSO does not project as a heavy volume type of running back. But that’s kind of the point.
This is a backfield that emphasizes speed and efficiency, meaning what Mostert, Achane and Wright might lack in volume, they can make up for with yards and explosive plans into the end zone.
(Again, I already discussed this in great detail in episode 15, but…) don’t after Miami spent the 120th overall pick (4th round) on Wright, don’t be surprised if Miami’s backfield is a 3 headed monster in 2024.
And then there’s the tight ends…
(Just kidding; Jonnu Smith doesn’t move the needle any more than Mike Gesicki did in 2022 when he finished as fantasy’s TE 22. Let’s keep moving.)
TLDR: with the same cast and crew that finished 1st in offensive yards and 2nd in scoring last season—heck they even ADDED to their arsenal—the question isn’t about if you want to target the Miami Dolphins in 2024 fantasy football.
The question is about which ones are worth their price tags…
SO...
Where should Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Wright, Jonnu Smith and Odell Beckham land in 2024 fantasy football drafts? Where should they land in 2024 fantasy football rankings?
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