What to expect from this article
Below, we will dive deep into what we can expect from the Bengals offense in 2023, including thorough fantasy football previews for Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Irv Smith.
At the bottom for deep leaguers, Superflexers and dynasty leaguers, we will also discuss Trevor Siemian (QB), Chris Evans (RB), Trayveon Williams (RB), Chase Brown (rookie RB), Trenton Irwin (WR), Charlie Jones (rookie WR), and Andrei Iosivas (rookie WR).
Each player preview will conclude with suggestions for how to approach them in redraft, dynasty and best ball leagues (and superflex leagues for QBs).
2023 Fantasy Football Preview: Looking Back
2022 was another dominant year for Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, finishing 12-4 to win the AFC North and coming up just short of their 2nd straight Super Bowl appearance after a 23-20 loss to the inevitable champion Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.
They were once again a strong offensive unit, finishing the year:
🟢 7th in scoring
🟢 8th in yards
🟢 6th in pass attempts
🟢 5th in passing yards
🟢 2nd in passing TDs
And even all that success was in just 16 games while the rest of the league—except for Buffalo—played 17.
If you're looking for a weakness, Cincinnati was largely ineffective on the ground, finishing:
🔴 24th in rushing attempts
🔴 29th in rushing yards
🔴 29th in rushing yards per attempt
🟡 19th in rushing TDs
It was about on par with what we've come to expect from a Zac Taylor/Brian Callahan offense led by Joe Burrow.
After 2 straight seasons of Joe Burrow playing 16 games in Zac Taylor/Brian Callahan's offense, Cincinnati's offensive units have finished:
🟢 7th and 7th in scoring
🟢 13th and 8th in yards
🟡 20th and 6th in passing attempts
🟢 7th and 5th in passing yards
🟢 3rd and 8th in passing yards per attempt
🟢 7th and 2nd in passing TDs
🟠 19th and 24th in rushing attempts
🔴 23rd and 29th in rushing yards
🔴 26th and 29th in rushing yards per attempt
🟡 14th and 19th in rushing TDs
Cincinnati's numbers a the macro level have translated to the micro level as well:
🟢 Joe Burrow was the QB 8 in 2021 and QB 4 in 2022.
🟢 Despite Cincinnati underperforming at the team level over the last 2 seasons, Joe Mixon received enough volume to finish as fantasy's RB 4 in 2021 and RB 10 in 2022—he was actually the RB 6 in 2022 if you go by PPR points per game (he missed 3 games, including week 17's canceled game with Buffalo).
🟢 Samaje Perine contributed an RB 34 finish in 2022 as well.
🟢 Ja'Marr Chase was the WR 5 in 2021 and WR 11 in 2022—he was actually the WR 4 in 2022 if you go by PPR points per game (he missed 5 games, including week 17's canceled game with Buffalo).
🟢 Tee Higgins was the WR 24 in 2021 and WR 19 in 2022
🟢 Tyler Boyd was the WR 31 in 2021 and WR 38 in 2022
🔴 CJ Uzomah was the TE 19 in 2021 and Hayden Hurst was the TE 21 in 2022
As you can see, with Joe Burrow and Zac Taylor back in the saddle, it's relatively easy to predict what to expect from the Bengals' attack in 2023; a pass-heavy offense that we want to target in fantasy football.
2023 Fantasy Football Preview: Looking Ahead
It's been a relatively quiet offseason for the Bengals. So far, they've:
❌ Lost RB Samaje Perine to free agency (Broncos)
❌ Lost TE Hayden Hurst to free agency (Panthers)
✅ Replaced Hurst with Vikings' 2019 2nd round pick Irv Smith
✅ Drafted Purdue WR Charlie Jones with the 131st overall pick (4th round, 29th pick)
✅ Drafted Illinois RB Chase Brown with the 163rd overall pick (5th round, 29th pick)
✅ Drafted Princeton WR Andrei Iosivas with the 206th overall pick (6th round, 40th pick)
Vegas Sportsbooks are expecting another dominant campaign from the Bengals, projecting them for over/under 11.5 wins (-134 on the under) and another AFC north title (+130) with the 4th best odds of winning the Super Bowl (+1000).
At the micro level, Joe Burrow is tied for the best odds of winning NFL MVP (+700), and Ja'Marr Chase is currently the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1200).
The main storyline to watch in Cincinnati as we move within two months of kickoff(!!!) is Joe Mixon's contract situation, one that is publicly known to require Mixon to accept a pay cut or be cut.
If Mixon is cut, the Bengals would likely turn to a committee featuring 2019 6th round pick Trayveon Williams, 2021 6th round pick Chris Evans, and this year's 5th round pick Chase Brown.
Cincinnati would also be likely to add a veteran RB via free agency, especially with Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt all still available (Zeke has already been linked to Cincinnati in offseason rumors).
That said, at present, the most likely scenario is that Mixon and Bengals brass resolve the issue—it's been reported that both sides would like to figure it out—and that Mixon is locked in for easily another 250+ touches in 2023 (he had 270 in 14 games last year, and a career-high 334 in 16 games in 2021).
The Bengals have been dominant—especially at the micro level—in each of the last two seasons, and fantasy football players should expect more of the same in 2023.
👇 With that all being said, let's do a thorough 2023 fantasy football preview of each and every fantasy-relevant player on the Cincinnati Bengals! 👇
Cincinnati Bengals Quarterbacks
🟢 QB Joe Burrow Fantasy Football Preview
2022 was another dominant campaign for Joe Burrow, Cincinnati's 1st overall pick from 2020.
He completed a career-high 414 of a career-high 606 pass attempts for 4,475 passing yards—all of which were the 5th most in football despite playing 1 game less than everyone ahead of him—and 35 TDs, which tied for the 2nd most in the NFL behind only MVP Patrick Mahomes.
In 32 regular season games over the last 2 seasons, Burrow has averaged:
⚫ 20.5 fantasy points per game
⚫ 35.2 pass attempts and 24.4 completions per game (a very nice 69%)
⚫ 283.9 passing yards per game
⚫ 2.2 passing TDs per game (a very nice 69 total)
⚫ 0.8 interceptions per game (26 total)
⚫ 11.7 rushing yards per game
⚫ 0.2 rushing TDs per game (7 total)
⚫ 0.2 lost fumbles per game (5 total)
Offering both a safe floor and explosive ceiling, Burrow has scored 16 or more fantasy points in 25 of those 32 games (78%) with more games over 30 fantasy points (5) than games under 10 fantasy points (2).
The 26-year-old (27 in December) is entering 2023 tied for the best odds to win his first NFL MVP award (+700) with the 2nd best odds of leading the NFL in passing yards (+650).
Interestingly, despite possibly losing Joe Mixon while still having Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd—potentially signaling a heavier pass approach—Vegas Sportsbooks currently have Burrow pegged for over/under 4300.5 passing yards (-112 for both) and over/under 32.5 passing TDs (-112 for both), both of which would be significantly lower than his outputs from each of the previous two years (4611 and 4475 yards plus 34 and 35 TDs).
Still, entering his 4th NFL season and playing with a chance to reset the market for contracts at the QB position, Burrow is best approached as a high end QB 1 with QB 1 overall upside.
Dynasty Leagues: 🟢 Joe Burrow is currently the QB 4 in dynasty startups behind just Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. He's a strong "hold" for current dynasty managers.
Redraft Leagues: 🟡 Joe Burrow is currently the QB 4 in redraft leagues on Sleeper, drafted around pick 35 overall (late 3rd round).
It's a reasonable price to pay, but it's hard to ignore Chris Olave, Najee Harris, Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalf, Lamar Jackson, Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen and Joe Mixon, each of which are drafted within 6 picks in either direction of Burrow.
I currently have Burrow at #39 in my 2023 Draft Rankings.
Burrow is higher on my priority list in drafts where I've already secured Ja'Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins.
Superflex Leagues: 🟢 Joe Burrow is currently the QB 4—and 4th overall pick—in Superflex startups. That's exactly where he should be.
Best Ball Leagues: 🟢 Whereas Joe Burrow is currently the QB 4 around pick 35 overall in redraft leagues on Sleeper, he goes later in best ball drafts on Underdog, selected as the QB 5 around pick 45 overall (late 4th round).
That's a much easier price tag to swallow and he's an auto-draft if I've already selected Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins—and especially if I've drafted both, which I've already done on several occasions.
Others I'm considering within 6 picks in either direction of Burrow are Najee Harris, Jerry Jeudy, Terry McLaurin, Drake London, Mike Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, DJ Moore, Joe Mixon, Christian Kirk and Justin Fields.
Max best ball exposure: 25%
NOTE: If you're in a Superflex league, see the bottom of this article for analysis on backup QB Trevor Siemian
Cincinnati Bengals Running Backs
🟢 RB Joe Mixon Fantasy Football Preview
From a data standpoint, 2022 was a an...interesting...year for Joe Mixon, statistically.
On the one hand, he (finally) saw the heaviest receiving usage of his 6-year career, catching 60 of 75 targets for 441 yards (all of which were new career highs) and 2 TDs.