👆 Destroy your friends with a draft cheat sheet that they don't even know exists! 👆
2022 was mostly a year to forget for the Baltimore Ravens, at least from a fantasy football standpoint.
They went 10-7 to finish 2nd in the AFC North, squeaking into the playoffs but being instantly eliminated by the division rival Bengals, 24-17.
Battling injuries across the entire roster all season, their offense finished:
❌ 19th in the NFL in scoring
❌ 28th in passing attempts
❌ 28th in passing yards
❌ 19th in passing TDs
❌ 19th in rushing TDs
The lone bright spots on offense were that they did finish:
✅ 16th in offensive yards
✅ 7th in rushing attempts
✅ 2nd in rushing yards
Of course, plenty of their offensive struggles could be explained by Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman's noted run-heavy history (he's never finished lower than 9th in the NFL in rushing attempts in 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator) and a terrible string of bad luck injuries that decimated the entire offense.
After missing the final 6 games—including the playoff loss—with a knee injury, Lamar Jackson finished as fantasy football's QB 14 after being drafted as fantasy's QB 5.
Kenyan Drake was the team's "best" RB, finishing as fantasy football's RB 45 as JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards battled injuries all season, combining for just 17 games played.
Devin Duvernay was Baltimore's "best" WR, finishing as fantasy's WR 64 and followed closely by Demarcus Robinson who was fantasy's very nice WR 69 after Rashod Bateman made it through just 6 games before suffering a season-ending Plantar Fascia tear in his foot.
Mark Andrews had a decent season, but finished as fantasy's TE 4 after unseating Travis Kelce as the TE 1 just one year prior (and being drafted that way in 2022).
Any way you slice it, 2022 was a down year for the Ravens' offense as a whole.
But fantasy football is a game of forward thinking.
And there is a lot to be excited about with the 2023 Ravens.
2023 Fantasy Football Preview: Looking Ahead
This offseason, Baltimore:
✅ Replaced run-heavy Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman with a more balanced—if not more pass heavy—OC in Todd Monken.
✅ Re-signed franchise QB Lamar Jackson to a monster contract, giving him $260 million—$185 million of which is guaranteed—over a five year pact.
✅ Signed free agent WRs Odell Beckham—a three-time, top 7 WR in fantasy football—and Nelson Agholor—a three-time, top 34 WR—to one-year contracts, boosting Baltimore's weapons in the passing game.
✅ Drafted Boston College's WR Zay Flowers with the 23rd overall pick in the NFL Draft, further boosting Lamar Jackson's arsenal in the passing game.
Vegas Sportsbooks currently have the Ravens set for a campaign that looks a lot like last year's, with an over/under of 9.5 wins (over -150) and a projected 2nd place finish in the AFC North.
Offensively, however, all signs point to a (potentially massive) step forward for the Ravens, particularly in the passing game.
So what does it all mean for fantasy football?
New Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken has 4 seasons of NFL OC experience on his resume after spending three years with the Buccaneers (2016-2018) and one with the Browns (2019)—not to mention 10 seasons as an OC or Head Coach at the collegiate level with Eastern Michigan (1998-1999), Oklahoma State (2011-2012), Southern Mississippi (2013-2015) and, most recently, Georgia (2020-2022).
In his 4 years as an NFL OC (2016-2019), Monken's units finished:
🟠 18th, 18th, 12th and 22nd in scoring
🟡 18th, 9th, 3rd and 19th in yards
🔴 7th, 26th 22nd and 22nd in rushing attempts
🔴 24th, 27th, 29th and 12th in rushing yards
🔴 29th, 25th, 23rd and 15th in rushing TDs
🟢 16th, 3rd, 4th and 19th in passing attempts
🟢 16th, 4th, 1st and 22nd in passing yards
🟢 8th, 10th, 3rd and 19th in passing TDs
One caution worth noting is that Monken was a part of bad teams that went 25-39 in those 4 seasons, paired with bad defenses that finished 15th, 22nd, 31st and 20th in scoring.
In other words, he needed to throw the ball in many contests to try and keep up with—or catch up to—his opponents.
That doesn't necessarily figure to be the case with the Ravens, who's defenses have finished 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 6th, and 9th in scoring in 6 of the last 7 seasons.
Still, working with the best QB of his career and with the Ravens' offseason activity signaling a desire to be more balanced—if not pass-heavy—there's a lot to like about the Ravens offense in 2023 fantasy football.
With that all being said, let's preview each and every fantasy-relevant member of the Baltimore Ravens! 👇
Baltimore Ravens Quarterbacks
🟡 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Lamar Jackson (QB)
Like most of his teammates, 2022 was a year to forget for Lamar Jackson, setting new career lows in games played (12, which was a tie), pass attempts (326), completions (203), completion percentage (62.3%), passing yards (2242), rushing attempts (112) and rushing yards (764) in his 4 years as a starting QB.
He finished as as fantasy football's QB 14 after being drafted as fantasy's QB 5.
Of course, all of that is to be expected after you miss the final 6 games of the season, including a playoff loss to the rival Bengals.
On a per-game basis, however, Lamar was still Lamar, averaging (over 11 games):
21.52 fantasy points per game
202.82 passing yards per game
1.55 passing TDs per game (17 total)
0.64 interceptions per game (7 total)
10.1 rushing attempts per game
68.64 rushing attempts per game
0.27 rushing TDs per game (3 total)
He scored 15 or more fantasy points in 8 of 11 games, including both of his career high games in back-to-back weeks (42.6 points against the Dolphins in week 2, and 39.4 points against the Patriots in week 3).
And when you look at his overall body of work, Lamar remains one of the best QBs in all of fantasy football.
Over 57 career games where Lamar has thrown at least 16 pass attempts, he's averaged:
💪 23 fantasy points per game
💪 207.5 passing yards per game
💪 1.7 passing TDs per game (99 total)
💪 0.7 interceptions per game (38 total)
💪 11.8 rushing attempts per game
💪 72.7 rushing yards per game
💪 0.4 rushing TDs per game (22 total)
One of the safest-floor QBs in all of fantasy football, Lamar has scored 15 or more fantasy points in 48 of 57 games (84%), including 20 or more fantasy points in 33 of 57 games (58%).
And his ceiling remains elite, scoring 30 or more fantasy points in 13 of 57 games (23%) with more games over 39 fantasy points (2) than games under 10 fantasy points (1).
Still one of the most dominant QBs in fantasy football, Lamar Jackson has been a top 6 QB in each of the last 4 seasons on a per-game basis, including finishes of QB 1 (2019), QB 6 (2020), QB 5 (2021) and QB 6 (2022).
Moving forward, Lamar will be working with new Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken, who has a documented history of (a lot) more pass heavy offenses than the ones outgoing OC Greg Roman ran in the past.
There's a stark contrast in scheme when comparing Roman to Monken.
In 4 seasons as the Ravens' OC, Roman's offenses ranked:
🟢 1st in rushing attempts 🔴 32nd in passing attempts
🟢 1st in rushing attempts 🔴32nd in passing attempts
🟢 3rd in rushing attempts 🟢 9th in passing attempts
🟢 7th in rushing attempts 🔴 28th in passing attempts
In 4 seasons as an NFL OC, Monken's offenses ranked:
🟢 7th in rushing attempts 🟢 16th in passing attempts
🔴 26th in rushing attempts 🟢 3rd in passing attempts
🔴 22nd in rushing attempts 🟢 4th in passing attempts
🔴 22nd in rushing attempts 🔴 19th in passing attempts
Monken's pass-heavy approach jives with the offseason moves that Baltimore has made so far, signing free agent WRs Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor AND spending their first round pick on WR Zay Flowers.
It's pretty clear the Ravens want to throw the ball and Lamar himself said he "absolutely" believes his rushing attempts will be dialed down under Monken, which admittedly makes things interesting—and not necessarily in a good way—for the 26-year-old former MVP.
While more of a pass-heavy focus sounds great on the surface for a QB, it can't be overstated how important Lamar's work in the rushing game is for his fantasy value.
For example, if we remove the rushing statistics from Lamar's 2019 MVP season, his average drops from 27.7 fantasy points per game all the way down to 16.9 fantasy points per game, which would have dropped him from fantasy's QB 1 to fantasy's QB 13.
If we do the same with 2020, Lamar's average drops from 22.9 fantasy points per game to just 13.5 fantasy points per game, which would drop him from QB 6 to QB 29.
2021? He'd drop from 21.3 fantasy points to 13.3 fantasy points per game, or QB 8 to QB 24.
2022? He'd drop from 21.2 fantasy points per game to 12.7 fantasy points per game, or QB 6 to QB 26.
Of course, all of that assumed ZERO rushing attempts, which is obviously not going to be the case for one of the most dynamic QBs in all of football.
So instead, to be conservative, let's assume Jackson's rushing production is slashed by 50%.
In 2019, that would have dropped Lamar from 27.7 fantasy points per game to 22.3 fantasy points per game and he would still have been the QB 1 in 2019.
In 2020, that would have dropped Lamar from 22.9 fantasy points per game to 18.2 fantasy points per game, or from QB 6 to QB QB 12.
In 2021, that would have dropped Lamar from 21.3 fantasy points per game to 17.3 fantasy points per game, or from QB 5 to QB 13.
In 2022, that would have dropped Lamar from 21.2 fantasy points per game to 16.9 fantasy points per game, or from QB 6 to QB 13.
And that's:
A) assuming his rushing production is slashed in half—a pretty massive change
B) NOT accounting for a boost in passing production
In other words, if we're aggressively conservative by assuming his rushing production is slashed in half AND he doesn't throw for another yard, he's still finishing as a top 13 QB.
And consider this...
With Monken in place and Lamar playing with the best supporting cast of his career, Vegas Sportsbooks have Jackson pegged for an over/under of 3,625.5 passing yards, which would far surpass his current career high of 3,127.
For what it's worth, Baker Mayfield enjoyed a career high in passing yards (3,827) during the one season he played under Monken.
There's absolutely some risk to Lamar as a fantasy asset this year as we undergo a potentially massive change, especially when you consider that Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield have underperformed under Monken (Winston was the QB 16, QB 22 and QB 22 under Monken. Baker was the QB 20).
But Lamar remains an MVP-caliber QB who just received the best supporting cast of his career and an Offensive Coordinator who's vertical style could open up more running room and chunk plays when Lamar does take off and run on broken plays.
Lamar is best treated as a mid-range QB 1 who carries elite weekly and yearly QB 1 (overall) upside.
Dynasty Leagues: Lamar Jackson is currently the QB 5 in dynasty startup drafts behind only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and ahead of Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, etc. That's a perfectly fine place to take him.
In existing leagues, Lamar is a "hold" for anyone currently rostering him. There might even be a slight, tiny "buy-low" window if the manager in your league is frustrated with back-to-back injury-shortened seasons and/or a fear of Todd Monken sapping his rushing production.
Redraft Leagues: Lamar Jackson is currently the QB 6, drafted around pick 40 overall (early 4th round). I personally have drafted him multiple times in that spot—so the cost is ok—but I'm usually more likely to opt instead for others in that range, including Najee Harris, Deebo Samuel, Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper, TJ Hockenson, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.
Superflex Leagues: Interestingly enough, despite being the QB 5 in dynasty startups, Lamar Jackson is the QB 6 in superflex startups behind Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, drafted 6th overall. That's a perfectly fine place to draft Lamar in Superflex leagues, though I wouldn't fault anyone for opting for Justin Jefferson there.
Best Ball Leagues: Lamar Jackson is currently the QB 6, drafted around pick 40 overall (early 4th round). I personally have drafted him multiple times in that spot—so the cost is ok—but I'm usually more likely to opt instead for others in that range, including Najee Harris, Deebo Samuel, Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper, TJ Hockenson, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.
Max best ball exposure: 15%
🔴 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Tyler Huntley (QB)
Tyler Huntley has proven himself to be an uninspiring backup QB who can pop off the occasional streamer week in fantasy football.
Small sample size, but in 9 career games where he's played at least 52 offensive snaps, Huntley has averaged:
13.5 fantasy points per game
66% completion percentage
179.1 passing yards per game
0.6 passing TDs per game (5 total)
0.8 interceptions per game (7 total)
43.3 rushing yards per game
0.3 rushing TDs per game (3 total)
He's scored fewer than 12 fantasy points in 6 of those 9 games, but does have a career high of 35.9 fantasy points against my beloved Packers in week 15 of 2021 (that said, it's literally his only performance of greater than 16 fantasy points).
Unless something happens to Lamar Jackson for a 3rd straight season, Huntley is off of the fantasy football radar in 99.99% of leagues.
Dynasty Leagues: Originally an undrafted free agent from Utah, Tyler Huntley will never be anything more than a replacement level QB in the NFL. His dynasty value is near zero.
Redraft Leagues: Tyler Huntley is currently undrafted/unrostered in 2023 redraft and best ball leagues. Keep it that way. He'll be a low-end streaming option if anything happens to Lamar Jackson
Superflex Leagues: Tyler Huntley would enter the low-end QB2 conversation in Superflex leagues if anything happened to Lamar Jackson.
Best Ball Leagues: Tyler Huntley is currently undrafted/unrostered in 2023 redraft and best ball leagues. Keep it that way.
Max best ball exposure: 0%
Baltimore Ravens Running Backs
🟢 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - JK Dobbins (RB)
It's been a rather uneventful first 3 years in the NFL for JK Dobbins, the ballyhooed 55th overall pick in 2020.
In a promising rookie season, the Ohio State product split time 50/50 with Gus Edwards, turning 152 touches—including 18 catches on 24 targets—into 925 scrimmage yards and 9 TDs on his way to an RB 24 finish in fantasy football.
Unfortunately, 2020 was easily the best year of Dobbins' career (so far), as he tore his ACL right before the season started in 2021 and spent most of 2022 battling lingering issues and trying to kick the rust off.
But 2 straight years of fantasy insignificance may very well be leading to a buy-low/sleeper opportunity in 2023.
As far as Dobbins' health is concerned, it seems it will be a non-issue heading into 2023. Dr. Deepak Chona is very optimistic that Dobbins *should* return to the form we saw in 2020:
"RB numbers drop hard the first year back from multi-ligament knee surgery (2022). Our algorithm predicts 19 months post-injury to return to pre-injury levels, (which is in line with his strong finish to 2022—months 18 and 19)... Expect the JK Dobbins who averaged 100 yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry in his last 5 games."
In other words, give us a 100% healthy JK Dobbins as the lead back in what should be an improved offense, and there's some very real value here in the middle rounds of 2023 fantasy drafts.
Sprinkle in his talent and the theoretical motivation of playing for a new contract (2023 is the last year of Dobbins' rookie deal), and there's some very real league-disrupting upside to be had in the middle rounds.
Over 14 career games where Dobbins has handled at least 11 touches, he's averaged:
13.6 PPR points per game
14 touches per game—including just 0.9 catches on just 1.3 targets per game
83.9 scrimmage yards per game
0.7 TDs per game (10 total)
And in 6 games where he handled at least 15 touches, Dobbins' averages spike to:
15.7 PPR points per game
16.2 touches per game—including 1.3 catches on 1.5 targets
93.8 scrimmage yards per game
0.8 TDs per game (5 total)
As discussed in the beginning of this Baltimore Ravens preview, new Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken is expected to bring a more balanced approach to the Ravens' offense than the overwhelmingly run-heavy offense that Greg Roman ran over the last few years.
And while that will likely lead to less rushing attempts overall for the Ravens' offense, it might also mean more receiving opportunities for the dynamic playmaker, JK Dobbins, which enhances his overall upside as a fantasy football.
Also, for what it's worth, Nick Chubb had a career high 334 touches—including a career high 36 catches on a career high 49 targets—for a career high 1,772 scrimmage yards under Monken's thumb in 2019 (20.9 touches per game). He was the RB 9 that season.
One caution to consider, of course, is that Gus Edwards is still in town—as is Justice Hill—and it remains to be seen how the two (three?) will split the work.
But there's a lot of upside to Dobbins' in 2023, especially at his current cost.
Dobbins is best approached as an RB 2 with upside for more.
Dynasty Leagues: JK Dobbins is currently the RB 15 in dynasty startup drafts, selected around pick 53 (mid 5th round). It's an appropriate price to pay.
In existing leagues, Dobbins is a "hold" for current managers and a significant "buy low" option, especially the current Dobbins manager in your league has rostered him for each of the last 2 years.
Redraft Leagues: JK Dobbins is currently drafted as the RB 20, selected around pick 60 overall (5th/6th round). That's a potentially huge value for a guy with top 15—if not top 10—upside. And as a frequent Zero/Hero RB drafter, I'd be absolutely delighted to find him in the 5th/6th round if I spent many of my first 4 picks on WRs.
Best Ball Leagues: JK Dobbins is currently drafted as the RB 20, selected around pick 60 overall (5th/6th round). That's a potentially huge value for a guy with top 15—if not top 10—upside. And as a frequent Zero/Hero RB drafter, I'd be absolutely delighted to find him in the 5th/6th round if I spent many of my first 4 picks on WRs.
Max best ball exposure: 20%
🟠 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Gus Edwards (RB)
Following a lost 2021 season due to a September 9th ACL tear, 2022 was a year to forget for Gus Edwards as he tried to make his way back from the injury (which is to be expected).
After a delayed start to his 2022 campaign, Edwards battled thigh, hamstring and other injuries all year, limiting him to just 9 games, 87 touches—including ZERO catches—for 433 scrimmage yards and 1 TD.
That said, he is expected to be fully ready for training camp and on track to open the year behind JK Dobbins as the team's RB 2.
Of course, Dobbins and Edwards are the perfect dual-Spiderman meme in terms of their injury paths over the last 2 seasons (both backs played in 8-9 games last season after missing all of 2021).
In fact, the dual Spiderman meme started the last time we saw Dobbins and Edwards fully healthy for an entire season (2020, Dobbins' rookie year), when Dobbins handled 152 touches to Edwards' 153.
Of course, Dobbins was the (much) more superior back, turning his 152 touches—including 18 catches on 24 targets—into 925 scrimmage yards and 9 TDs.
(Edwards turned his 153 touches—including 9 catches on 13 targets—852 scrimmage yards and 6 TDs.)
But, in a teeny tiny sample size at the end of last season, we did see Dobbins start to pull away a bit in the 5 games that Dobbins and Edwards played together.
Dobbins averaged 13.5 PPR points per game on 15 touches per game for 101 scrimmage yards per game with 2 total touchdowns.
Edwards, on the other hand, averaged just 5.68 PPR points per game on just 9.4 touches per game for 54.8 scrimmage yards per game with 0 TDs.
Of course, all of that was under run-heavy (which is an understatement) Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman and not much more balanced Todd Monken, but we also have no idea how Monken will split the work between Dobbins and Edward (and Justice Hill?).
For what it's worth, in 2018 as the OC for the Buccaneers, Peyton Barber handled 254 touches (15.9 per game), while the next closest RB was Jacquizz Rodgers with 71 (4.4 per game). That offense had the 22nd "most" rushing attempts in all of football.
And in 2019 with the Browns, Nick Chubb handled 334 touches (20.9 per game), but Kareem Hunt was averaging 10 touches per game before getting hurt. That offense also had the 22nd "most" rushing attempts.
But if Kareem Hunt—a much more dynamic back than Gus Edwards—could just barely average 10 touches per game in Monken's offense, it's hard to see Edwards getting double digit touches most weeks (if Dobbins is healthy).
For what it's worth, in 24 career games where the 28-year-old has handled at least 10 touches, Edwards has averaged:
9.9 PPR points per game
15 touches
0.5 targets and 0.4 catches (10 of 13 total)
77.6 scrimmage yards
0.3 TDs (8 total)
In 2023, Edwards is best approached as an unexciting RB 4 who would be an instant RB 2 if anything were to happen to Dobbins.
Dynasty Leagues: Going into his age 28 season, Gus Edwards has minimal dynasty value for as long as JK Dobbins is healthy.
Redraft Leagues: Gus Edwards is currently the RB 70 in 2023 drafts, selected around pick 233 overall (mid 20th round). That's too low for a guy that could see meaningful playing time, even if he's not a sexy pick with big upside. He's worth a look as early as the 15th round.
Best Ball Leagues: Gus Edwards is currently the RB 70 in 2023 drafts, selected around pick 233 overall (mid 20th round). That's too low for a guy that could see meaningful playing time, even if he's not a sexy pick with big upside. He's worth a look as early as the 15th round.
Max best ball exposure: 10%
🔴 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Justice Hill (RB)
Justice Hill has appeared in 34 games over a 4 year career.
He has just 4 career games with at least 10 touches, and none with more than 11.
He averaged just 8.1 PPR points in those 4 contests, and he's scored more than 8 points just twice in his 34-game career.
Still just 25 years old (26 in November), Hill *could* come into the fantasy football picture if something were to happen to Gus Edwards and/or JK Dobbins, but both guys battled injuries all of 2022, and Hill only had two games with 10 touches.
Loved him coming out of Oklahoma State in 2019, but the fantasy football ship seems to have sailed on Justice Hill.
Dynasty Leagues: Justice Hill does not belong on a roster in 99.9% of fantasy football leagues.
Redraft Leagues: Justice Hill does not belong on a roster in 99.9% of fantasy football leagues.
Best Ball Leagues: Justice Hill does not belong on a roster in 99.9% of fantasy football leagues.
Max best ball exposure: 0%
🔴 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Keaton Mitchell (RB)
The Ravens signed undrafted free agent Keaton Mitchell to a three year contract, bringing him in to compete with Justice Hill for the RB 3 job.
Mitchell is a teeny tiny (5'8," 179 pounds) but super speedy running back that started 3 years at East Carolina, compiling 3,607 scrimmage yards and 28 TDs on 523 touches.
Film guru Jonathan Chapman documented Mitchell with elite speed, excellent burst and an ability to always fall forward, but his "lack of size shows up in pass protection," making it no surprise that Mitchell went undrafted.
A 5'8," 179 pound running back is never going to get the volume you need to be a consistent fantasy force, but his speed makes him a big play threat if he can ever find the field.
And in a backfield with JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill—each of which who missed all of 2021 with injuries—there's certainly a believable path to the field for Mitchell, even if it is a longshot.
Dynasty Leagues: Keaton Mitchell currently goes undrafted in dynasty startups. But if your rookie drafts have 5 or more rounds, I'd consider him in the 5th.
Redraft Leagues: Keaton Mitchell is a dynasty-only consideration.
Best Ball Leagues: Keaton Mitchell is a dynasty-only consideration.
Max best ball exposure: 0%
Baltimore Ravens Wide Receivers
🟢 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Rashod Bateman (WR)
It's been a frustrating, injury-plagued two-year start to Rashod Bateman's career.
The former 27th overall pick from Minnesota missed the first 5 games of 2021 with a grade 2 groin strain and then played just 6 games in 2022 before undergoing season-ending Lisfranc surgery.
Lisfranc surgeries can be notoriously tricky to come back from, and the great Dr. Deepak Chona believes it might take a few weeks for Bateman to fully return to form:
"Bateman should match peak pre-injury production, but likely not right away. Lisfranc's cause performance dips for 10-12 months, which for Bateman would mean gradual improvements up to nearly 100% by late October."
And when he does return to "peak" form, it hasn't exactly been all that "peak" thus far.
In just 15 career games where Bateman has played at least 36 offensive snaps, he's averaged just:
10.2 PPR points per game
5.9 targets per game
3.9 catches per game
52.2 yards per game
0.2 TDs per game (3 total)
47.8 offensive snaps per game
He's scored more than 14 PPR points in just 2 of 15 games (13%) while landing below 9 PPR points in 7 of 15 games (47%).
For what it's worth, Bateman's numbers look predictably better with Lamar Jackson under center. As opposed to averaging just 7.4 PPR points per game over 5 games without Jackson, Bateman has played 36 or more snaps in 10 games with Jackson, averaging:
11.5 PPR points per game
6.1 targets per game
4.1 catches per game
64.3 yards per game
0.2 TDs per game
All of that being said, Bateman—who was one of my favorite WRs in the 2021 draft, by the way—is still just 23 years old and will get every opportunity to be the Ravens' WR 1 in Todd Monken's offense, one that made:
Mike Evans the WR 3 in 2016
Mike Evans the WR 17 and DeSean Jackson the WR 43 in 2017
Mike Evans the WR 9, Adam Humphries the WR 24, Chris Godwin the WR 27 and DeSean Jackson the WR 42 in 2018
Jarvis Landry the WR 12 and Odell Beckham the WR 25 in 2019
As mentioned in the beginning of the Ravens 2023 fantasy football preview, Monken is expected to bring a lot more balance to the Ravens offense, which should create more targets to go around.
In his 4 years as an NFL OC (2016-2019), Monken's units finished:
🟢 16th, 3rd, 4th and 19th in passing attempts
🟢 16th, 4th, 1st and 22nd in passing yards
🟢 8th, 10th, 3rd and 19th in passing TDs
Bateman will need added opportunities after the Ravens added some significant competition for targets this offseason (Baltimore drafted Zay Flowers in the 1st round while also adding Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor from free agency—not to mention the ever-elite presence of TE Mark Andrews).
In 2023, Bateman is best approached as a solid WR 3 option with the talent and upside for more. Year 3 is frequently known as a common "breakout year" for high-level WRs.
Dynasty Leagues: Rashod Bateman is currently drafted as the WR 39 in dynasty startup drafts, meaning the former 27th overall pick is being treated as a high-end WR 4 in new dynasty leagues.
That signals a significant "buy-low" opportunity for a 23-year-old talent that was among the best in his class just 2 short years ago.
Redraft Leagues: Rashod Bateman is currently being drafted as the WR 50, around pick 115 overall (mid-10th round). That's a lot of upside that is otherwise tough to find in the double digit rounds.
Drafted near Brian Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Geno Smith, Michael Thomas, jamaal Williams, Tyler Allgeier, Odell Beckham, Samien Harris, Zay Flowers, Allen Lazard, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, Jakobi Meyers and KJ Osborn (among others), Bateman is one of my favorite upside picks of the 10th round.
Best Ball Leagues: Rashod Bateman is currently being drafted as the WR 50, around pick 115 overall (mid-10th round). That's a lot of upside that is otherwise tough to find in the double digit rounds.
Drafted near Brian Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Geno Smith, Michael Thomas, jamaal Williams, Tyler Allgeier, Odell Beckham, Samien Harris, Zay Flowers, Allen Lazard, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, Jakobi Meyers and KJ Osborn (among others), Bateman is one of my favorite upside picks of the 10th round.
Max best ball exposure: 25%
🟢 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Odell Beckham (WR)
After sitting out the entire 2021 season, Odell Beckham finally found a new home, signing a one-year contract with the Baltimore Ravens worth up to $18 million, $15 million of which is guaranteed.
It's an intriguing landing spot for the 30-year-old (31 in November) former 12th overall pick with three 1,300+ yard seasons on his resume (though none since 2016). He'll join a Baltimore pass-catching core that's suddenly deep (the Ravens also signed Nelson Agholor and drafted Zay Flowers to go with OBJ, Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews) but without a crystal clear WR 1, 2 or 3.
It'll also be the best QB that OBJ has ever played with, joining former MVP Lamar Jackson in an offense that will be coordinated by Todd Monken, someone with documented success in the NFL passing game.
In his 4 years as an NFL Offensive Coordinator (2016-2019), Monken's units finished:
🟢 16th, 3rd, 4th and 19th in passing attempts
🟢 16th, 4th, 1st and 22nd in passing yards
🟢 8th, 10th, 3rd and 19th in passing TDs
Monken's success in the passing game has trickled down to the individual level as well, which is great news for a Ravens offense that has produced just one top 35 WR in the last 6 years.
This will also be the second time in his career that Odell Beckham has worked with Todd Monken after the two worked together with the Browns in 2019.
With Monken coordinating the offense:
Mike Evans was fantasy football's WR 3 in 2016
Mike Evans was the WR 17 in 2017
Mike Evans was the WR 9 in 2018
Adam Humphries was the WR 24 in 2018
Chris Godwin was the WR 27 in 2018
Jarvis Landry was the WR 12 in 2019
Odell Beckham was the WR 25 in 2019
And we already know what OBJ is capable of.
Over his 96 game NFL career, Odell Beckham is still averaging:
17 PPR points per game
9.2 targets per game
5.5 catches per game
76.7 yards per game
0.6 TDs per game (56 total)
He's scored 15 or more PPR points in 51 of 96 career games (53%) and has more games over 20 PPR points (31) than he has games under 10 PPR points (25).
And we know about the ceiling, hitting 30+ PPR points in 10 of 96 games (10%), including 2 career games over 40 PPR points (one of which was against the Ravens, funny enough.
(Of course, it's quite a bit uglier after 2019, where OBJ has averaged just 10.3 PPR points, 6 targets, 3.2 catches and 0.4 TDs per game over 21 contests in 2020 and 2021.)
Still, theoretically the healthiest he's been in years and joining a Todd Monken/Lamar Jackson offense with an ambiguous WR room and opportunity to prevail as the team's WR 1, there is a lot of 2023 intrigue and upside to Odell Beckham—someone with three top 7 finishes (and two more top 25 finishes) already on his resume.
OBJ is best approached as a WR 3 with big upside for more.
Dynasty Leagues: Now entering his age 30 season (31 in November) and having not been fantasy relevant since 2019, Odell Beckham's dynasty value is the lowest it's ever been (he's the WR 63 in startup drafts).
He's a "hold" for current managers that could become a "sell high" as the season goes on.
There's currently some intriguing "buy low" appeal for current contenders.
Redraft Leagues: Odell Beckham is currently the WR 47, drafted around pick 111 (early 10th round) in 2023 drafts. There's very little downside and a ton of upside to spending a 10th round draft pick on OBJ at current cost.
I'll happily select Beckham over several names that are commonly drafted in that range, including Quentin Johnston, Brian Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Geno Smith, Michael Thomas, Jamaal Williams, Russell Wilson, Tyler Allgeier, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Damien Harris, Zay Flowers, Dalton Schultz, Elijah Moore, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, Antonio Gibson, Allen Lazard and sometimes even Rashod Bateman.
Best Ball Leagues: Odell Beckham is currently the WR 47, drafted around pick 111 (early 10th round) in 2023 drafts. There's very little downside and a ton of upside to spending a 10th round draft pick on OBJ at current cost.
I'll happily select Beckham over several names that are commonly drafted in that range, including Quentin Johnston, Brian Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Geno Smith, Michael Thomas, Jamaal Williams, Russell Wilson, Tyler Allgeier, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Damien Harris, Zay Flowers, Dalton Schultz, Elijah Moore, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, Antonio Gibson, Allen Lazard and sometimes even Rashod Bateman.
Max best ball exposure: 25%
🟡 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Zay Flowers (WR)
With the 22nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Baltimore Ravens selected Zay Flowers, a diminutive (5'9," 182 pounds) but dynamic 23-year-old (in September) WR from Boston College.
Flowers had a solid—not spectacular—collegiate career statistically where he was able to prove that he's capable of playing all over the formation despite his small frame, finding success both in the slot and on the outside while at Boston College.
He has top-end speed, "un-coachable bounce," and an innate ability to "avoid contact when climbing past first level defenders" per film guru Jonathan Chapman).
As Chapman so perfectly put it, Flowers has "can't touch him in a phone booth" type of ability.
Flowers is not without flaws, of course. His college production profile wasn't elite, he's been known to make the occasional boneheaded drop, and his route running prowess is good, not great.
But sheer talent and versatility? Not a question.
Flowers' selection was the latest in a string of offseason moves that suggest the Ravens will be looking to throw (a lot) more than in year's past after the Ravens replaced Greg Roman with Todd Monken, signed free agent WRs Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor, and spent their first round pick on the speedy rookie.
A pass-heavy approach is good news for all Ravens pass catchers, but all of that target competition—which didn't even mention incumbent WR 1 Rashod Bateman and elite TE Mark Andrews—will likely make it hard for Flowers to make a consistent year 1 impact in fantasy football.
In other words, he might open the season as far down as 5th in line for targets behind Bateman, Andrews, Beckham and Agholor (and JK Dobbins?).
But...
What if Bateman struggles to return to form in his comeback from Lisfranc surgery, a notoriously tricky injury recovery for WRs?
What if Odell Beckham is just not Odell Beckham any more? He hasn't had a 1,000 yard season since 2019.
What if the Ravens' coaching staff decides that Flowers is a better weapon than journeyman Nelson Agholor?
It's not likely and I'm not betting on it personally, but being 1st or 2nd in line for targets is within Flowers' range of possible outcomes in 2023.
As for 2024 (and beyond), Beckham and Agholor are once again free agents following this season, and Bateman's contract expires after 2024. Flowers could very well be the team's full time WR 1 or WR 2 as early as next year. That's exciting for dynasty leaguers.
Dynasty Leagues: Zay Flowers is currently #6 in BBFF's 2023 Rookie Rankings (#9 in Superflex), mixed into the 3rd tier with Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston.
Redraft Leagues: Zay Flowers is currently the WR 45, drafted around pick 90 overall (mid-8th round). While he could ceretainly meet or exceed that cost, it's stilll too rich for my taste in year 1 with so many other notable names within 5 picks in either direction of Flowers: Deshaun Watson, Rachaad White, Rashod Bateman, James Conner, David Montgomery, Elijah Moore, Michael Thomas, Javonte Williams, Evan Engram, Courtland Sutton, James Cook. Even Odell Beckham is drafted after Flowers.
Best Ball Leagues: Zay Flowers is currently the WR 45, drafted around pick 90 overall (mid-8th round). While he could ceretainly meet or exceed that cost, it's stilll too rich for my taste in year 1 with so many other notable names within 5 picks in either direction of Flowers: Deshaun Watson, Rachaad White, Rashod Bateman, James Conner, David Montgomery, Elijah Moore, Michael Thomas, Javonte Williams, Evan Engram, Courtland Sutton, James Cook. Even Odell Beckham is drafted after Flowers.
Max best ball exposure: 5%
🔴 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Nelson Agholor (WR)
As a part of their remodeling of the offense to signal a more balanced—if not pass-heavy—approach than year's past, the Ravens' signed 2015 20th overall pick (Eagles) to a one-year, $3.25 million contract.
The 30-year-old journeyman comes to Baltimore having reached 500 receiving yards just once in the last 4 seasons. He's been "fantasy football relevant" in just 3 of his 8 years in the league.
He peaked as a member of the Raiders back in 2020, catching 48 of 82 targets for 896 yards (career high) and 8 TDs (tie career high) as Las Vegas' deep threat. His 11.6 PPR points per game that season were good enough for a WR 34 finish on the year.
In 2018, Agholor caught 64 of 97 targets (both career highs) for 736 yards and 4 TDs, scoring 10.3 PPR points per game on his way to a WR 34 finish.
And in 2017, he caught 62 of 95 targets for 768 yards and 8 TDs (tie career high), scoring 12.1 PPR points per game (career high) for a WR 21 finish (career high).
That's it. Those are Agholor's career highlights. A WR 21 finish and two WR 34 finishes between the years of 2017 and 2020 (despite being drafted in 2015).
In other words, Agholor has been fantasy's WR 67 or worse in 5 of 8 professional seasons.
In 68 career games, Agholor is averaging:
7.5 PPR points per game
4.6 targets per game
2.8 catches per game
33.1 yards per game
0.2 TD per game (16 total)
He has scored fewer than 10 PPR points in 52 of 68 career games (76%).
He's been able to reach 15 or more PPR points in just 11 of 68 games (16%), with 3 games over 20 PPR points, including a career high of 27.1 against the Seahawks as a member of the Eagles back in 2017.
A career underachiever that will have to battle Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers (and JK Dobbins?) for targets, Nelson Agholor isn't worth much consideration in 2023 fantasy football leagues.
Dynasty Leagues: Entering his age 30 season, Nelson Agholor doesn't even crack the top 275 draft picks in dynasty startup leagues. It's totally fine to leave him on the waiver wire.
Redraft Leagues: Nelson Agholor is currently undrafted in fantasy football leagues. Don't change that.
Best Ball Leagues: Nelson Agholor is currently undrafted in fantasy football leagues. Don't change that.
Max best ball exposure: 1%
🔴 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Devin Duvernay (WR)
After 29 career games, Devin Duvernay is averaging just:
6.5 PPR points per game
3.3 targets per game
2.4 catches per game
23.4 yards per game
0.2 TDs per game (5 total)
He's scored more than 13 PPR points just twice in his career but has 23 games under 10 PPR points.
He received a chance to shine when Rashod Bateman was knocked out for the year in 2022, but Duvernay averaged just 6 PPR points, 3 targets, 2.4 catches and 17.9 yards per game across 7 games as a starting WR.
Now Baltimore brought in Odell Beckham, Nelson Agholor and Zay Flowers.
Like my ex, you can go ahead and forget that Duvernay ever existed.
Dynasty Leagues: Devin Duvernay is best left on the waiver wire in all formats.
Redraft Leagues: Devin Duvernay is best left on the waiver wire in all formats.
Best Ball Leagues: Devin Duvernay is best left on the waiver wire in all formats.
Max best ball exposure: 0%
Baltimore Ravens Tight Ends
🟢 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Mark Andrews (TE)
Mark Andrews came back to Earth in 2022, just one year removed from unseating King Kelce as fantasy football's TE 1.
But he still had a pretty doggone good year, catching 73 (2nd most of career) of 113 targets (2nd most) for 847 yards (3rd most) and 5 TDs (4th most) to average 12.7 PPR points per game and finish as fantasy's TE 4, his 4th straight season as a top 6 TE in fantasy football.
After 42 games where Andrews has played at least 40 snaps, the 2018 3rd round pick from Oklahoma has averaged:
14.7 PPR points per game
8.3 targets per game
5.5 catches per game
66.3 yards per game
0.4 TDs per game (18 total)
One of the "safest" options at the TE position, Andrews has scored 10 or more PPR points in 26 of 42 of those games (62%), including ceiling plays of:
15+ PPR points in 18 of 42 games (43%)
20+ PPR points in 11 of 42 games (26%)
35+ PPR points in 2 of 42 games (5%)
Perhaps most impressively, Andrews' dominance happened during a stretch of Greg Roman coordinating Ravens' offenses to the tune of the 32nd (2019), 32nd (2020), 9th (2021) and 28th (2022) "most" passing attempts in the last 4 seasons.
Now, Andrews will work for new Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken, who's spent 4 years as an NFL OC where his offenses ranked:
🟢 16th, 3rd, 4th and 19th in passing attempts
🟢 16th, 4th, 1st and 22nd in passing yards
🟢 8th, 10th, 3rd and 19th in passing TDs
Monken's success in the passing game has trickled down to the individual level at TE as well, as Cameron Brate and OJ Howard enjoyed the best seasons of their entire careers under Monken from 2016-2018:
In 2016, Brate caught 57 of 81 targets for 660 yards and 8 TDs, all of which are still career highs for the current 31 year old free agent. Despite going undrafted in 2016 fantasy leagues, Brate was fantasy's TE 8 that year, averaging 11.4 PPR points per game.
In 2017, Brate caught 48 of 77 targets for 591 yards and 6 TDs, all of which are still the 2nd highest career outputs in each category for Brate. Once again, Brate was undrafted in 2017 fantasy football leagues. And, once again, brate landed in the top 12 of TEs, scoring 8.9 PPR points per game as the game's TE 11.
1st round pick OJ Howard took over in 2018 but was limited to just 10 games. But when he was healthy, OJH had 48 targets (2nd most of career), 34 catches (most), 565 yards (most) and 5 TDs (2nd most). His 12 PPR points per game had him sitting at TE 6 before begging hurt.
Todd Monken's reliance on tight ends didn't change in the last 3 years as the Offensive Coordinator for Georgia, where he frequently utilized 2 TE sets and turned Brock Bowers—Georgia's leading receiver—into the John Mackey Award winner.
The main (only?) concerns for Andrews heading into 2023 is the added competition for targets after the Ravens signed free agents Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor, plus spent their 1st round pick on Boston College WR Zay Flowers.
Still, Andrews' top dog chemistry with perennial MVP candidate Lamar Jackson is well documented, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Andrews lead the team in targets for the 4th time in the last 5 years.
He'll get his.
With Jackson back under center and Todd Monken calling the shots, Andrews is best approached as a top 2 TE that could reclaim the TE 1 standing by the end of the year.
Dynasty Leagues: Entering his age 28 season, Mark Andrews is currently the TE 1 in dynasty startup drafts (Travis Kelce is 33+ years old). He's a strong "hold" for current managers.
Redraft Leagues: Mark Andrews is currently drafted as fantasy's TE 2 around pick 31 overall (mid 3rd round). Andrews is one of just 3 TEs that I would actively target in redraft leagues, but I'm also mixing in selections of Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, DK Metcalf, Lamar Jackson, Deebo Samuel and Amari Cooper (and occassionally Najee Harris) in that range.
Best Ball Leagues: Mark Andrews is currently drafted as fantasy's TE 2 around pick 31 overall (mid 3rd round). Andrews is one of just 3 TEs that I would actively target in redraft leagues, but I'm also mixing in selections of Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, DK Metcalf, Lamar Jackson, Deebo Samuel and Amari Cooper (and occassionally Najee Harris) in that range.
If you do select Andrews, plan on just a two-TE build in best ball drafts, with your second one coming around picks 135-163 (12th-14th round). You can often pair Andrews with Dalton Schultz, Greg Dulcich, Tyler Higbee, Irv Smith or Gerald Everett in that range (Cole Kmet is in there too, but he has the same bye as Andrews which doesn't help you in best ball).
Max best ball exposure: 25%
🟠 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Isaiah Likely (TE)
As a 22 year old rookie in 2022, Isaiah Likely took dynasty leaguers by storm last year after a dominant preseason and explosions of 18.3 and 19.7 PPR points in weeks 8 and 18 (he was the lead TE with Mark Andrews injured for both contests).
In fact, in 3 games that Andrews missed or was knocked out, Likely averaged:
15.8 PPR points per game
8.33 targets per game
5 catches per game
68 yards per game
had 2 TDs
Of course, in the other 11 full games that Andrews did play, Likely averaged 3.99 PPR points and 3.18 targets per game. Which makes sense; it's rare for a team to support two tight ends in fantasy football.
So if Andrews is healthy, then why write about Likely, the 2022 4th rounder from Coastal Carolina?
Because Todd MF'in Monken, that's why.
Monken, Baltimore's new Offensive Coordinator, joins the team after a three year stint as the OC for the Georgia Bulldogs—the defending National Champions—where he heavily involved multiple TEs and turned Brock Bowers—Georgia's leading receiver—into the John Mackey Award winner.
Known to use two-TE sets to create mismatches, Monken has already publicly talked up both Andrews AND Likely:
"...they both have the ability to make plays down the field, run after catch. So, it's a great starting point, because I think they're tough matchup guys."
Monken, by the way, already has documented success at the NFL level, spending 4 years as an OC for the Buccaneers and Browns where his offenses ranked:
🟢 16th, 3rd, 4th and 19th in passing attempts
🟢 16th, 4th, 1st and 22nd in passing yards
🟢 8th, 10th, 3rd and 19th in passing TDs
Monken's success in the passing game has trickled down to the individual level at TE as well, as Cameron Brate and OJ Howard enjoyed the best seasons of their careers under Monken from 2016-2018:
In 2016, Brate caught 57 of 81 targets for 660 yards and 8 TDs, all of which are still career highs for the current 31 year old free agent. Despite going undrafted in 2016 fantasy leagues, Brate was fantasy's TE 8 that year, averaging 11.4 PPR points per game.
In 2017, Brate caught 48 of 77 targets for 591 yards and 6 TDs, all of which are still the 2nd highest career outputs in each category for Brate. Once again, Brate was undrafted in 2017 fantasy football leagues. And, once again, brate landed in the top 12 of TEs, scoring 8.9 PPR points per game as the game's TE 11.
1st round pick OJ Howard took over in 2018 but was limited to just 10 games. But when he was healthy, OJH had 48 targets (2nd most of career), 34 catches (most), 565 yards (most) and 5 TDs (2nd most). His 12 PPR points per game had him sitting at TE 6 before begging hurt.
To be clear, we are definitely grasping at straws here, and the likelihood of an NFL franchise supporting two fantasy-relevant TEs is miniscule. Especially when you consider that the Ravens have to feed Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, Nelson Agholor, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
But if injuries—especially to Andrews—start to stack up for Ravens pass catchers, Likely will definitely be a name to watch (and add before your friends do).
In the end, Likely should LIKELY (see what I did there?) not be drafted in most 2023 fantasy leagues.
But the 23 year old is definitely a name to monitor as a TE 2 that could turn into an instant TE 1 at any point.
Dynasty Leagues: Isaiah Likely is the TE 29 in dynasty startup drafts, which makes sense with Mark Andrews in front of him (for now).
But, long term, I'd prefer Likely over several TEs that are currently drafted before him (Tucker Kraft, Dawson Knox, Darnell Washington, Zach Ertz, just to name a few).
Redraft Leagues: Isaiah Likely shouldn't be drafted in "normal sized" fantasy leagues. But he will be a hot waiver wire pickup and streaming option if anything happened to Mark Andrews.
Best Ball Leagues: Isaiah Likely is currently drafted as the TE 28 around pick 207 (early 18th round) in best ball drafts. He doesn't really belong on best ball rosters and you should be done drafting TEs by that point. But if you're stuck, Likely offers a ton of upside for a desperation TE 3.
Max best ball exposure: 1%
Comments